Quickfire Challenge: Cooking a Risk Stratification Algorithm for Value-based Care

Image

 

Guilty pleasure admitted, I watch Top Chef, and actually like it.  By no means am I am an adventurous foodie, but I am intrigued by the dexterity it takes to balance imperfect, varying ingredients and how they will be received differently by each judge’s palate. Healthcare is a Quickfire Challenge every day. Actuaries slice and dice data and weigh carefully to perfectly cook an algorithm that is a constantly moving quotient.  Think for a moment about all the variables the actuaries have to cook with:

 Clinical Diagnoses, Behavioral Health, Special Needs

Potential Physical Limitations

Social Determinants

Utilization/Claims Data

Clinician Input (Personal Knowledge)

– Any chronic disease, particularly one that is not in control or at desired goal

– Chronic pain

– Substance abuse (alcohol/drug/tobacco)

– Terminal illness

– Advanced age with frailty

– Multiple co-morbidities

– Pre-term delivery of newborn

– Child, youth, or adult with special needs

– Anxiety, schizophrenia, bipolar, depres­sion, or other behavior affecting health

– Dental health

– Dementia/Alzheimer’s disease

– Non-ambulatory

– Needs Assistance with Activities of Daily Living (ADLs)

– Severely diminished functional status

– Declining eyesight

– Extreme weakness or fatigue

– At risk for falls

– Lack of financial or family support that impacts care

– Unemployed

– No health insurance

– Low health literacy

– Unsafe home environment

– Homeless

– Lives alone and needs assistance with ADLs

– Transportation for health care appointments is difficult

– Language barriers

– Frequent hospitalizations (particularly heart failure, GI disorders, and pneumo­nia)

– Frequent office, ER, or urgent care visits

– Multiple providers

– Hospital readmission within 30 days

– Major procedure in last year

– Chronic kidney disease

– Brain trauma

– Expensive medications

– Polypharmacy – Patient is taking several medica­tions that may not all be needed and/or could have potential for interactions

– High-risk medications

– Non-compliant with treatment plan

– Confusion with medications or following the treat­ment plan

– Recent move to long-term facility or other transition of care

– Spouse (who was the caregiver) recently deceased

– Lack of engagement in care plan

– Low confidence or ability for self-management

 

Actuaries, you rock.

“When the water starts to boil, it is foolish to turn off the heat” – Nelson Mandela

Leave a comment